Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -550 VAL +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +24 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -9.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -8.9 (+15.1) | 138.1 (-4.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -9.5 (+14.5) | 136.8 (-2.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -10.1 (+13.9) | 137.3 (-3.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -9.1 (+14.9) | 137.1 (-3.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#98) | -1.4 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#166) | -0.63 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#149) | -0.60 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#162) | 0.462 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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