Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -10.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -10.7 (-3.7) | 142.5 (-11.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -9.2 (-2.2) | 142.3 (-11.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -9.6 (-2.6) | 140.3 (-9.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -8.8 (-1.8) | 141.3 (-10.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#106) | -3.4 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#141) | -0.33 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#132) | -0.46 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#151) | 0.481 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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