Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -0.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -0.1 (-3.9) | 138.0 (-10.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -1.3 (-5.3) | 141.9 (-13.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -0.7 (-4.7) | 142.6 (-14.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.8 (-4.8) | 142.9 (-14.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#258) | -2.5 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#203) | -0.88 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#218) | -1.08 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#223) | 0.461 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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