Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +5 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -0.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+38.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -0.2 (+5.2) | 156.3 (+36.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -0.2 (+4.8) | 153.2 (+39.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -0.0 (+5.0) | 153.3 (+39.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -0.4 (+4.6) | 156.9 (+36.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SJU 68 – 56 DEP |
| Dec 17, 2025 | SJU 79 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SJU 82 – 58 DEP |
| Dec 17, 2024 | SJU 89 – 61 DEP |
| Mar 6, 2024 | SJU 104 – 77 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#97) | 9.4 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#96) | 1.54 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#91) | 2.27 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#176) | 0.524 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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