Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -800 DEP +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +28 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -9.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -8.4 (+19.6) | 151.3 (-1.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -13.6 (+14.4) | 154.9 (-4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -8.0 (+20.0) | 149.0 (+1.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -7.1 (+20.9) | 149.9 (+0.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SJU 68 – 56 DEP |
| Dec 17, 2025 | SJU 79 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SJU 82 – 58 DEP |
| Mar 6, 2024 | SJU 104 – 77 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2024 | SJU 85 – 57 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 4-16 |
| Home | 19-0 | 11-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#26) | 9.5 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#56) | 0.87 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#40) | 1.45 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#31) | 0.520 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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