Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ORE -190 USC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -0.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -1.9 (-2.9) | 141.5 (-2.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -1.4 (-2.4) | 143.9 (-4.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -1.2 (-2.2) | 144.2 (-5.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -1.5 (-2.5) | 144.3 (-5.3) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#59) | 11.5 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#55) | 2.73 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#54) | 3.12 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#53) | 0.603 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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