Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SMC +475 GONZ -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -9.7 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -4.9 (+14.9) | 140.0 (-16.0) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -5.0 (+15.0) | 141.6 (-17.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -4.5 (+14.5) | 141.2 (-17.2) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -4.5 (+14.5) | 143.2 (-19.2) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Home | 16-0 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 87.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#23) | 25.1 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#24) | 3.81 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#28) | 5.00 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#4) | 0.626 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 53.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 59.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.