Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -475 CSUN +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +19 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -9.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -8.0 (+11.0) | 138.1 (-21.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -8.4 (+10.6) | 138.2 (-21.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -8.3 (+10.7) | 139.5 (-22.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -8.9 (+10.1) | 139.9 (-22.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | CSUN 94 – 78 UCD |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UCD 89 – 80 CSUN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CSUN 65 – 62 UCD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CSUN 73 – 61 UCD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCD 66 – 65 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 3-13 |
| Home | 7-5 | 4-11 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 60.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#223) | -9.8 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#205) | -1.44 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#214) | -1.75 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#239) | 0.444 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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