Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +27 | 99 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -4.8 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.5 (-26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -4.6 (+22.4) | 126.5 (-27.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.1 (+22.9) | 130.3 (-31.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.2 (+22.8) | 131.0 (-32.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -4.5 (+22.5) | 131.1 (-32.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#164) | -2.1 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#169) | -0.52 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#167) | -0.71 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#117) | 0.491 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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