Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -3.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -3.5 (-7.5) | 133.6 (+8.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.4 (-6.4) | 133.3 (+8.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.9 (-6.9) | 135.4 (+6.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.4 (-6.4) | 135.3 (+6.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#176) | -1.0 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#134) | 0.04 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#148) | 0.01 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#135) | 0.512 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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