Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -2.0 Push |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | ARK -140 UK +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UK -3.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -0.8 (+2.8) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -0.3 (+2.3) | 149.1 (-1.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -0.3 (+2.3) | 152.1 (-4.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -0.6 (+2.6) | 149.9 (-1.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UK 85 – 77 ARK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ARK 89 – 79 UK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UK 111 – 102 ARK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UK 63 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UK 88 – 79 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-1 | 18-0 |
| Away | 5-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.6 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#19) | 20.3 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#25) | 3.32 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#22) | 4.21 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#27) | 0.636 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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