Betting Lines
| Spread | DEL -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | DEL -220 UNCW +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +7 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | DEL -5.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEL -3.8 (-10.8) | 145.8 (-14.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEL -5.1 (-12.1) | 147.0 (-16.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEL -4.7 (-11.7) | 148.6 (-17.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -4.2 (-11.2) | 147.2 (-16.2) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 76 – 72 DEL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCW 88 – 58 DEL |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCW 77 – 67 DEL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNCW 79 – 74 DEL |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DEL 75 – 66 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEL | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#145) | -1.9 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#127) | 0.67 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#131) | 0.31 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#96) | 0.525 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEL | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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