Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | MIA -120 VT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -0.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -0.4 (-1.4) | 137.7 (+3.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.1 (-4.1) | 141.2 (-0.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -2.3 (-3.3) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.7 (-2.7) | 139.9 (+1.1) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MIA 67 – 66 VT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VT 81 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VT 86 – 85 MIA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MIA 82 – 74 VT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#69) | 11.2 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#46) | 1.26 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#45) | 1.74 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#53) | 0.552 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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