You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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101–26 on winners spread MAE 8.3 127 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
USC @ Purdue +11.6 148.6 87% 72–90 ✓
VCU @ Dayton -0.8 140.3 44% 73–68 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -6.2 146.7 26% 61–59 ✓
St. John's @ UConn +1.2 140.6 57% 68–62 ✗
San José State @ Boise State +12.4 143.7 86% 52–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's +5.2 138.1 68% 63–76 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -15.3 155.2 13% 89–81 ✓
Tennessee @ Oklahoma -2.4 135.6 37% 70–52 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +11.7 139.0 87% 52–82 ✓
Oregon @ Michigan State +6.9 145.0 77% 74–86 ✓
South Carolina @ Kentucky +11.5 149.9 83% 57–80 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa -6.7 153.3 26% 79–55 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +8.9 138.0 81% 60–71 ✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross +0.5 132.2 54% 52–72 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown +10.4 131.4 85% 46–60 ✓
Wisconsin @ Iowa -2.6 155.8 37% 74–63 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana -3.3 150.7 39% 70–67 ✓
Troy @ Miami (OH) +0.3 142.3 58% 62–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan +0.1 146.6 49% 83–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame +7.0 137.8 74% 65–63 ✗
Bucknell @ Army +0.2 147.1 54% 110–116 ✓
Navy @ Lafayette +1.1 136.6 54% 51–61 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.9 129.2 66% 58–69 ✓
NJIT @ New Hampshire +0.0 136.9 46% 69–80 ✓
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -2.8 136.6 37% 87–72 ✓
Lipscomb @ Queens University -2.8 143.5 40% 94–81 ✓
Texas @ Vanderbilt +1.8 149.3 63% 78–86 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +10.0 140.2 86% 70–82 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -4.2 143.3 42% 73–81 ✗
Southern Miss @ Ball State +2.7 144.8 59% 76–77 ✓
South Alabama @ Akron +7.2 142.8 76% 67–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Eastern Michigan +2.5 142.8 64% 70–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Northern Illinois +0.1 142.1 44% 66–64 ✗
James Madison @ Toledo +0.8 151.6 47% 69–72 ✓
Georgia State @ Buffalo -2.0 155.0 42% 80–75 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Bowling Green +3.4 139.9 63% 53–67 ✓
Arkansas State @ Kent State +0.5 135.3 47% 75–76 ✓
App State @ Ohio +2.4 139.1 57% 72–59 ✗
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -9.0 158.0 26% 105–95 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +5.5 151.5 74% 79–72 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan +4.9 133.8 71% 83–84 ✓
UCF @ Baylor +11.2 158.5 86% 76–91 ✓
Miami @ Louisville +19.3 157.0 91% 78–88 ✓
UIC @ Southern Illinois -0.3 153.7 50% 67–79 ✗
Stonehill @ Long Island University +1.5 131.7 53% 59–62 ✓
American University @ Lehigh +1.7 138.4 56% 78–75 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +3.8 140.1 66% 68–82 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +2.2 151.2 72% 72–74 ✓
Yale @ Cornell -1.2 155.6 40% 103–88 ✓
Saint Francis @ Chicago State -2.1 136.6 35% 81–69 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth +2.4 145.9 62% 56–76 ✓
UMBC @ Maine +6.6 149.4 77% 50–73 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -4.3 149.4 31% 78–71 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky -1.4 143.2 37% 81–76 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel -0.2 139.3 42% 81–79 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware -0.2 159.8 56% 64–74 ✗
North Alabama @ West Georgia -9.1 147.9 17% 78–61 ✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha -1.5 151.8 51% 74–85 ✗
Wofford @ Mercer -0.1 149.8 51% 77–66 ✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +9.7 141.7 83% 76–75 ✗
Siena @ Rider -2.6 140.5 44% 59–61 ✗
Little Rock @ Morehead State -3.3 129.4 33% 76–62 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International -3.6 139.0 34% 82–71 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton +2.1 142.1 64% 67–77 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +2.7 145.2 65% 71–69 ✗
Tulane @ North Texas +9.0 125.5 81% 66–76 ✓
Le Moyne @ Mercyhurst +3.7 145.2 69% 78–82 ✓
Providence @ Butler +5.9 143.8 73% 81–82 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +1.4 142.2 57% 60–77 ✓
Canisius @ Merrimack +13.0 131.8 86% 51–69 ✓
Boston College @ Syracuse +7.3 147.5 81% 86–95 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri +4.1 140.6 65% 67–64 ✗
Rice @ Charlotte -1.1 142.6 43% 75–78 ✗
Florida @ Auburn +9.2 155.5 74% 90–81 ✗
Houston @ Colorado -13.9 132.9 14% 69–59 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +1.7 158.1 64% 78–82 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +9.9 138.8 85% 65–81 ✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +3.7 153.8 69% 66–67 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +8.2 137.0 80% 67–82 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso -0.1 144.5 53% 74–56 ✓
UNLV @ Wyoming -0.3 132.6 39% 68–57 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -15.3 145.7 12% 88–53 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +19.2 137.3 91% 44–92 ✓
Penn State @ UCLA +8.4 142.7 82% 54–78 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +11.4 144.3 85% 60–79 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +6.1 140.7 74% 84–75 ✗
Towson @ Monmouth -3.5 137.2 36% 73–67 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +10.9 135.9 84% 80–75 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson -7.4 154.8 23% 83–58 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +12.7 135.0 87% 56–81 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver -10.1 150.6 17% 79–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Greensboro +15.0 137.1 88% 70–74 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State +0.0 147.2 46% 59–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +5.9 138.7 72% 54–59 ✓
Sam Houston @ Liberty +12.7 141.5 87% 61–64 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +5.4 136.0 66% 77–67 ✗
New Orleans @ Houston Christian +8.9 144.0 82% 68–81 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +4.1 147.8 67% 72–85 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +7.1 136.6 71% 70–81 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +5.8 146.2 76% 76–84 ✓
Texas State @ Central Michigan +2.1 144.3 64% 70–85 ✓
Utah @ West Virginia +6.2 132.0 75% 61–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ California -0.6 139.5 45% 76–66 ✓
Missouri State @ Belmont +6.8 151.2 76% 68–85 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -8.7 147.4 17% 81–68 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese +13.4 133.7 87% 50–65 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +8.2 143.3 76% 76–78 ✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington +0.1 143.5 49% 67–72 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida -1.1 159.6 49% 84–70 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +5.9 141.5 72% 67–90 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State +1.0 143.4 51% 76–75 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +3.8 142.2 72% 83–85 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +3.5 136.0 68% 61–75 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Prairie View A&M -4.0 147.3 30% 85–82 ✓
Mississippi State @ Georgia +3.0 143.8 65% 76–75 ✗
Illinois @ Minnesota -8.1 145.0 23% 95–74 ✓
BYU @ Cincinnati +0.3 141.8 54% 66–84 ✓
Florida A&M @ Texas Southern +4.4 143.9 61% 66–64 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Duquesne -0.1 131.5 47% 56–69 ✗
Indiana State @ Drake +13.1 138.7 87% 81–85 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +5.5 141.9 76% 65–68 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Stephen F. Austin -2.6 138.0 36% 64–78 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word -0.3 143.4 45% 71–66 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +3.7 144.8 69% 83–88 ✓
Pepperdine @ Washington State +9.6 148.9 83% 86–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +3.4 142.1 66% 69–80 ✓
Duke @ Clemson -5.3 137.8 38% 71–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.