Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -230 CCU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +14 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -4.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -3.4 (+10.6) | 139.9 (-19.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -3.5 (+10.5) | 138.5 (-18.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -4.2 (+9.8) | 138.1 (-18.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -3.2 (+10.8) | 138.5 (-18.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#308) | -10.1 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#328) | -2.00 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#331) | -2.47 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#338) | 0.394 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 10.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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