Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -300 USA +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -6.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -7.2 (+5.8) | 142.8 (+4.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -6.9 (+6.1) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -9.2 (+3.8) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -8.1 (+4.9) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#96) | 2.2 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#86) | 0.02 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#93) | 0.17 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#58) | 0.492 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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