Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | M-OH +105 TROY -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -0.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -0.3 (+6.7) | 142.3 (-11.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -0.3 (+6.7) | 138.9 (-7.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -1.0 (+8.0) | 136.0 (-5.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -0.9 (+6.1) | 140.8 (-9.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#163) | 3.9 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#97) | 0.41 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#118) | 0.75 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#119) | 0.535 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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