I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Miami (OH) RedHawks
69 62
FINAL MAC-SBC Challenge
Troy Trojans
Millett Hall · February 8, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TROY -1.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money M-OH +105 / TROY -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total M-OH win
Actual M-OH +7 131 Won
Massey TROY -0.8 (+7.8)
Massey Totals 143.5 (-12.5)
Bradley-Terry 74%
Weighted B-T 66%
Baseline ML M-OH -0.3 (+6.7) 142.3 (-11.3) 58%
Baseline Plus ML M-OH -0.3 (+6.7) 138.9 (-7.9) 56%
Efficiency Plus ML TROY -1.0 (+8.0) 136.0 (-5.0) 47%
Baseline Tuned ML M-OH -0.9 (+6.1) 140.8 (-9.8) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings M-OH TROY
Overall 25-9 23-11
Conference 14-4 13-5
Home 15-1 11-4
Away 6-7 9-6
Neutral 4-1 3-1
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.7 72.0
Avg Pts Against 73.3 66.3
Massey -0.0 (#163) 3.9 (#109)
Bradley-Terry 0.89 (#97) 0.41 (#138)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.75 (#118) 0.75 (#121)
RPI 0.531 (#119) 0.535 (#110)
Shooting & Four Factors M-OH TROY
FG% 47.7% 43.8%
3PT% 36.9% 30.7%
REB / G 32.6 36.8
OREB / G 9.0 13.4
AST / TO 1.17 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.6% 50.8%
TOV% 17.5% 21.3%
ORB% 27.6% 39.1%
FT Rate 21.1% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 20.2%
DRB% 72.0% 68.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.5% 18.9%

Game Analysis

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