Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | UNF +120 FGCU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -2.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -1.0 (-13.0) | 158.5 (-4.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -1.3 (-12.7) | 157.9 (-3.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -1.1 (-12.9) | 159.6 (-5.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -1.2 (-12.8) | 159.0 (-5.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNF 76 – 70 FGCU |
| Feb 12, 2026 | FGCU 90 – 81 UNF |
| Feb 25, 2025 | FGCU 86 – 82 UNF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | FGCU 79 – 60 UNF |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UNF 78 – 58 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#246) | 0.1 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#188) | -0.12 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#203) | -0.25 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#180) | 0.496 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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