Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -165 USM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -3.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -2.7 (-1.7) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -3.7 (-2.7) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -2.2 (-1.2) | 143.9 (+9.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -2.3 (-1.3) | 144.2 (+8.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#254) | -6.3 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#286) | -0.91 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#295) | -1.28 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#300) | 0.455 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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