If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 9.4 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland @ Ohio State +1.9 151.1 64% 70–73 ✓
Temple @ South Florida -0.1 150.5 51% 91–100 ✗
Long Island University @ Wagner -0.3 127.5 40% 60–47 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis +4.1 145.6 67% 78–86 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State -0.7 133.9 45% 78–85 ✗
UMBC @ New Hampshire -6.2 152.5 30% 78–79 ✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland +4.2 135.3 64% 84–75 ✗
Elon @ Campbell +2.1 135.8 67% 58–76 ✓
Hampton @ Monmouth +1.4 144.7 61% 63–68 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +2.0 144.8 59% 66–86 ✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra +2.4 134.3 61% 77–68 ✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson -7.8 147.4 19% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.6 146.8 76% 92–74 ✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +14.3 148.0 89% 71–89 ✓
Niagara @ Merrimack +8.7 128.7 77% 59–64 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield -6.1 135.6 26% 56–59 ✗
Rider @ Sacred Heart +3.9 143.3 63% 77–89 ✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's +3.9 140.2 65% 70–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Siena +4.8 130.0 62% 63–77 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State +2.8 137.5 65% 63–77 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +0.6 149.3 55% 69–76 ✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International +0.0 142.3 50% 82–85 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State +0.2 138.5 44% 80–51 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +10.2 133.6 85% 66–87 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona -0.2 142.8 48% 64–69 ✗
Montana @ Northern Colorado +5.8 153.7 76% 86–78 ✗
Bellarmine @ North Florida +11.5 162.4 85% 88–95 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +6.6 148.4 78% 73–94 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State +3.0 154.6 67% 86–102 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -4.9 139.3 30% 78–72 ✓
North Dakota @ Omaha +6.4 157.2 82% 77–80 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State +9.0 144.3 79% 69–87 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty +6.3 134.6 75% 53–77 ✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana -3.0 131.3 33% 74–56 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +5.2 151.6 75% 70–78 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho -0.4 149.3 46% 76–69 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +8.9 133.7 77% 80–83 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga +17.9 150.5 89% 53–73 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco -0.6 132.4 56% 64–65 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech +0.4 137.8 49% 86–72 ✗
South Dakota @ Denver -2.2 158.0 41% 86–79 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +4.4 141.6 68% 52–51 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.6 142.5 40% 81–75 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego +12.5 143.4 86% 71–91 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge +15.1 147.7 88% 63–82 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -0.3 151.6 49% 63–79 ✗
UC Davis @ Long Beach State -3.6 133.5 29% 73–65 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +2.5 142.7 69% 69–71 ✓
Santa Clara @ Portland -15.9 156.0 15% 97–50 ✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U +8.6 131.1 83% 54–91 ✓
Southern Utah @ California Baptist +9.5 137.2 84% 60–57 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech -0.3 138.6 43% 75–58 ✓
Washington State @ Oregon State +6.2 151.5 74% 74–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.