I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–18 on winners spread MAE 9.4 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Syracuse -16.8 142.5 14% 83–54 ✓
Missouri @ Tennessee +7.4 131.9 77% 81–85 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +9.1 147.6 79% 64–75 ✓
High Point @ Radford -2.4 146.7 37% 78–75 ✓
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -1.2 154.1 45% 83–65 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +2.5 143.4 58% 93–83 ✗
Rice @ East Carolina +3.7 142.5 66% 73–60 ✗
Louisville @ Boston College -14.3 148.8 15% 84–58 ✓
George Mason @ George Washington -3.0 133.1 36% 53–50 ✓
Rhode Island @ Fordham -1.6 155.5 47% 79–80 ✗
Duquesne @ Richmond -2.6 132.4 41% 68–73 ✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +2.1 154.1 62% 62–80 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State -4.7 136.1 31% 66–61 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +0.6 131.4 44% 65–87 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +3.7 138.6 61% 71–58 ✗
American University @ Bucknell +1.8 142.7 58% 49–71 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -8.0 129.9 20% 84–59 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia State +5.3 144.4 68% 64–97 ✓
Texas State @ Old Dominion -3.0 142.7 41% 64–75 ✗
Troy @ James Madison +0.4 135.4 54% 61–64 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia Southern +5.3 142.2 73% 82–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky -3.6 134.0 39% 75–85 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +11.2 139.8 88% 56–71 ✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.4 157.2 72% 64–87 ✓
Lipscomb @ West Georgia -11.9 142.5 14% 76–67 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford +2.3 145.0 58% 79–70 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +14.9 144.4 89% 75–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -14.2 133.4 12% 76–61 ✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas -5.8 145.8 30% 63–47 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +10.8 154.6 84% 79–100 ✓
Tulsa @ Memphis +18.2 145.9 90% 71–83 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU -0.5 129.4 47% 60–65 ✗
Tulane @ UTSA +0.2 143.8 52% 61–60 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -0.1 140.6 50% 68–59 ✓
Illinois State @ UIC +3.5 153.5 62% 81–79 ✗
North Alabama @ Austin Peay -5.6 148.1 32% 74–64 ✓
Illinois @ Rutgers -5.6 158.8 31% 73–82 ✗
Creighton @ Providence -2.6 138.3 43% 80–69 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +6.2 140.4 76% 59–72 ✓
SMU @ Virginia Tech -8.6 148.2 21% 81–75 ✓
Belmont @ Bradley +7.2 155.4 76% 80–77 ✗
Villanova @ DePaul -2.1 142.2 42% 59–49 ✓
Arkansas State @ Marshall -3.8 146.2 33% 72–77 ✗
Arkansas @ Texas +6.3 141.4 73% 78–70 ✗
LSU @ Georgia +6.5 142.2 77% 62–81 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +7.5 146.4 79% 65–87 ✓
Nebraska @ Washington -1.3 141.6 43% 86–72 ✓
NC State @ California +1.6 140.8 56% 62–74 ✓
Wake Forest @ Stanford +3.6 137.0 67% 79–73 ✗
NJIT @ Maine +12.0 130.6 87% 74–78 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +10.1 156.1 82% 68–63 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston +12.7 157.3 87% 63–66 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -2.2 148.9 45% 54–66 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware -4.9 153.9 28% 77–67 ✓
Towson @ Stony Brook -7.3 132.9 22% 66–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.