Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | VT +225 SMU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +6 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -9.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -7.7 (+1.7) | 144.5 (+11.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -8.1 (+2.1) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -8.6 (+2.6) | 148.2 (+7.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -9.8 (+3.8) | 146.3 (+9.7) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | SMU 77 – 76 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-9 | 13-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#147) | 13.2 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#152) | 2.01 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#163) | 2.39 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#188) | 0.578 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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