Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -410 VT +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -10.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -11.0 (-10.0) | 159.0 (-6.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -9.8 (-8.8) | 156.9 (-3.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -10.3 (-9.3) | 157.5 (-4.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -10.1 (-9.1) | 158.6 (-5.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | SMU 81 – 75 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#28) | 9.9 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#28) | 2.17 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#28) | 3.04 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#13) | 0.618 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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