Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -140 NCSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -0.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -1.6 (+10.4) | 140.8 (-4.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.2 (+10.8) | 141.0 (-5.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -1.0 (+11.0) | 139.6 (-3.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -1.9 (+10.1) | 139.0 (-3.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAL 65 – 62 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#118) | 5.4 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#138) | -0.05 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#132) | 0.30 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#172) | 0.474 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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