Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Atlantic Coast Conference · Haas Pavilion · February 6, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread CAL -2.5 Home covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money CAL -140 / NCSU +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual CAL +12 136 Won
Massey CAL -0.5 (+11.5)
Massey Totals 143.0 (-7.0)
Bradley-Terry 74%
Weighted B-T 71%
Baseline ML CAL -1.6 (+10.4) 140.8 (-4.8) 56%
Baseline Plus ML CAL -1.2 (+10.8) 141.0 (-5.0) 59%
Efficiency Plus ML CAL -1.0 (+11.0) 139.6 (-3.6) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML CAL -1.9 (+10.1) 139.0 (-3.0) 60%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 18, 2025 CAL 6562 NCSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL NCSU
Overall 14-19 12-19
Conference 6-14 5-15
Home 11-6 12-6
Away 2-11 0-11
Neutral 1-2 0-2
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.6 69.6
Avg Pts Against 76.8 70.4
Massey 2.7 (#118) 5.4 (#95)
Bradley-Terry 0.42 (#138) -0.05 (#183)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.57 (#132) 0.30 (#150)
RPI 0.505 (#172) 0.474 (#223)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL NCSU
FG% 42.4% 43.9%
3PT% 31.3% 31.9%
REB / G 37.1 32.5
OREB / G 13.5 10.6
AST / TO 0.90 1.30
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.4% 49.1%
TOV% 16.6% 14.7%
ORB% 35.9% 30.2%
FT Rate 29.5% 23.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 19.6%
DRB% 69.1% 66.6%
Opp FT Rate 22.8% 22.9%

Game Analysis

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