Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | CP -105 HAW -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +16 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -0.6 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -1.4 (+17.4) | 149.2 (-7.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -0.1 (+15.9) | 151.5 (-9.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.3 (+16.3) | 151.6 (-9.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.4 (+16.4) | 150.4 (-8.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CP 86 – 75 HAW |
| Jan 16, 2026 | HAW 86 – 66 CP |
| Jan 5, 2025 | HAW 68 – 55 CP |
| Feb 16, 2024 | HAW 80 – 51 CP |
| Jan 28, 2024 | HAW 83 – 73 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-7 |
| Away | 5-13 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#236) | -0.7 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#222) | 0.04 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#228) | -0.06 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#229) | 0.490 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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