Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -230 CP +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +13 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -4.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (-42.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -5.0 (+8.0) | 151.1 (-28.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -5.4 (+7.6) | 151.1 (-28.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -3.9 (+9.1) | 152.7 (-29.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -3.0 (+10.0) | 150.2 (-27.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CP 86 – 75 HAW |
| Jan 16, 2026 | HAW 86 – 66 CP |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CP 79 – 63 HAW |
| Feb 16, 2024 | HAW 80 – 51 CP |
| Jan 28, 2024 | HAW 83 – 73 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#190) | -1.9 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#213) | -0.33 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#209) | -0.54 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#251) | 0.473 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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