Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | CMU -130 TXST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -1.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -2.1 (+12.9) | 144.3 (+10.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -1.9 (+13.1) | 145.1 (+9.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -0.8 (+14.2) | 143.3 (+11.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -2.9 (+12.1) | 143.4 (+11.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#223) | -2.0 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#270) | -0.41 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#270) | -0.73 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#247) | 0.492 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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