Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Central Michigan Chippewas
85 70
FINAL MAC-SBC Challenge
Texas State Bobcats
McGuirk Arena · February 8, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread CMU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money CMU -130 / TXST +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total CMU win
Actual CMU +15 155 Won
Massey CMU -1.7 (+13.3)
Massey Totals 143.4 (+11.6)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 51%
Baseline ML CMU -2.1 (+12.9) 144.3 (+10.7) 64%
Baseline Plus ML CMU -1.9 (+13.1) 145.1 (+9.9) 61%
Efficiency Plus ML CMU -0.8 (+14.2) 143.3 (+11.7) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML CMU -2.9 (+12.1) 143.4 (+11.6) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CMU TXST
Overall 14-17 16-16
Conference 7-11 9-9
Home 8-6 10-4
Away 6-10 4-10
Neutral 0-1 2-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.7 74.7
Avg Pts Against 74.4 74.5
Massey -3.4 (#223) -2.0 (#197)
Bradley-Terry -1.11 (#270) -0.41 (#215)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.34 (#270) -0.73 (#223)
RPI 0.463 (#247) 0.492 (#194)
Shooting & Four Factors CMU TXST
FG% 43.2% 45.8%
3PT% 29.6% 36.9%
REB / G 35.8 35.4
OREB / G 11.4 10.9
AST / TO 0.96 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.6% 50.8%
TOV% 18.9% 18.0%
ORB% 32.9% 32.7%
FT Rate 22.2% 29.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 50.9%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 16.4%
DRB% 71.5% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.1% 28.0%

Game Analysis

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