Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NIU -105 UL -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -1.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -0.1 (-2.1) | 142.1 (-12.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -0.0 (-2.0) | 143.2 (-13.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -0.8 (-1.2) | 141.7 (-11.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -0.3 (-2.3) | 141.0 (-11.0) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 5-12 |
| Away | 1-15 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -14.8 (#354) | -10.3 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#347) | -1.62 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#344) | -2.03 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#352) | 0.445 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 17.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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