Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +125 GAST -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -2.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -2.0 (-3.0) | 155.0 (-0.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -2.1 (-2.9) | 155.4 (-0.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -3.2 (-1.8) | 157.4 (-2.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.9 (-3.1) | 154.5 (+0.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#345) | -7.4 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#316) | -1.24 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#327) | -1.71 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#310) | 0.446 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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