Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -195 APP +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +13 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -3.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -2.4 (-15.4) | 139.1 (-8.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -2.8 (-15.8) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -1.2 (-14.2) | 141.2 (-10.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -2.4 (-15.4) | 137.4 (-6.4) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#156) | -0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#178) | 0.12 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#198) | 0.24 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#162) | 0.522 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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