Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -165 TEX +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -0.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -0.9 (+7.1) | 146.6 (+17.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -1.9 (+6.1) | 150.2 (+13.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -1.8 (+6.2) | 149.3 (+14.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -1.9 (+6.1) | 150.4 (+13.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | TEX 80 – 64 VAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | TEX 79 – 72 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#45) | 15.3 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#29) | 2.38 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#42) | 2.99 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#46) | 0.556 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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