Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -140 TEX +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -0.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -0.1 (-6.9) | 149.4 (+1.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -0.5 (-7.5) | 153.2 (-2.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -0.0 (-7.0) | 154.8 (-3.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -0.9 (-7.9) | 153.2 (-2.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | TEX 80 – 64 VAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VAN 86 – 78 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#45) | 13.0 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#22) | 2.08 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#37) | 2.55 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#58) | 0.531 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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