Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | TEX +160 VAN -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -7.0 (+23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.2 (-27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -2.4 (+18.4) | 163.0 (-19.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -4.7 (+20.7) | 162.7 (-18.7) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -4.6 (+20.6) | 163.7 (-19.7) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -4.8 (+20.8) | 163.8 (-19.8) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2025 | TEX 79 – 72 VAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VAN 86 – 78 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#45) | 22.6 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#77) | 5.29 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#64) | 7.30 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#152) | 0.678 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.5% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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