Betting Lines
| Spread | KENT -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | KENT -115 ARST -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KENT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENT +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -1.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KENT -0.5 (+0.5) | 135.3 (+15.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KENT -0.6 (+0.4) | 136.5 (+14.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KENT -0.9 (+0.1) | 135.8 (+15.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KENT -0.2 (+0.8) | 133.6 (+17.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KENT | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#137) | 6.1 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#140) | 1.20 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#149) | 1.46 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#122) | 0.583 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KENT | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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