I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–32 on winners spread MAE 8.4 117 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Niagara @ Manhattan +1.9 143.1 57% 81–67 ✗
Iona @ Saint Peter's +1.3 127.1 59% 57–69 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena -10.2 138.0 14% 93–69 ✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's +0.4 148.8 53% 69–74 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo +9.6 153.4 81% 64–68 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +6.6 148.1 77% 84–88 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +8.9 154.3 79% 78–83 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron +10.0 140.3 79% 67–83 ✓
Boise State @ San José State -4.9 143.0 30% 78–69 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall -3.1 139.3 39% 75–78 ✗
North Carolina @ Clemson +3.1 157.2 61% 65–55 ✗
Howard @ North Carolina Central +1.0 147.4 59% 54–73 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Louisville -10.8 140.5 17% 83–70 ✓
Rutgers @ Iowa +6.5 145.5 77% 77–86 ✓
DePaul @ Georgetown +6.9 137.3 77% 65–68 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina +3.1 137.3 63% 62–68 ✓
La Salle @ Fordham +4.1 147.9 67% 81–76 ✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +1.1 145.9 60% 82–75 ✗
Kentucky @ Florida +2.3 168.9 61% 87–85 ✗
Holy Cross @ Army +5.3 128.7 69% 57–70 ✓
St. John's @ Villanova +4.5 140.6 71% 81–71 ✗
Colgate @ Navy -2.2 129.4 38% 80–72 ✓
Lafayette @ Boston University +8.1 124.4 70% 59–51 ✗
Georgia @ Missouri +2.6 145.2 57% 75–68 ✗
Saint Francis @ Wagner +5.3 127.5 64% 56–71 ✓
Mercer @ VMI -2.7 138.3 41% 86–64 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -1.4 150.5 39% 80–64 ✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +10.4 157.8 83% 106–98 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy -8.4 145.4 23% 84–61 ✓
Bryant @ UMBC -4.1 161.0 31% 81–67 ✓
TCU @ Kansas +5.6 148.1 75% 81–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +23.7 130.2 90% 55–89 ✓
Providence @ Creighton +9.0 137.8 80% 60–69 ✓
Auburn @ Arkansas -3.7 154.1 30% 83–51 ✓
Virginia @ NC State +2.1 130.7 48% 60–76 ✓
Tulane @ North Texas +4.9 143.5 70% 56–70 ✓
Murray State @ Evansville +8.1 146.9 81% 81–59 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian -1.8 147.1 41% 84–80 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +9.5 150.3 82% 76–85 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson +1.2 140.9 57% 64–67 ✓
Drexel @ William & Mary -7.2 141.8 25% 77–55 ✓
Delaware @ Hofstra +2.7 143.0 65% 71–76 ✓
Campbell @ Hampton -0.1 135.8 41% 80–69 ✓
Jacksonville @ Stetson +8.8 151.0 83% 55–71 ✓
Saint Louis @ George Mason +13.2 145.0 87% 67–79 ✓
American University @ Bucknell +1.4 136.0 53% 71–63 ✗
Le Moyne @ Fairleigh Dickinson +1.3 150.6 50% 74–63 ✗
Long Island University @ Stonehill +1.8 139.2 57% 73–68 ✗
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +9.4 133.0 85% 51–80 ✓
Western Michigan @ Buffalo -0.7 141.9 44% 82–77 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ball State +8.8 140.0 79% 71–65 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +3.8 150.6 74% 66–78 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +12.8 144.3 87% 58–89 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +7.0 135.2 78% 58–65 ✓
UAlbany @ NJIT -3.8 149.0 36% 79–73 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -10.8 138.0 15% 73–67 ✓
Nebraska @ Wisconsin +7.7 143.2 76% 72–88 ✓
Miami @ Wake Forest +2.7 153.8 71% 82–86 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma State -6.6 147.4 22% 75–70 ✓
James Madison @ Southern Miss -11.3 155.2 17% 71–81 ✗
UTSA @ Rice +5.6 149.3 65% 89–82 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Longwood +15.0 135.2 89% 56–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +6.5 132.7 74% 58–82 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +6.3 139.7 76% 73–79 ✓
North Dakota @ Northern Arizona +3.8 143.3 66% 73–74 ✓
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe +4.5 136.4 58% 76–68 ✗
Old Dominion @ Arkansas State +6.3 151.5 79% 75–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Stephen F. Austin +6.7 143.9 78% 73–92 ✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt -15.4 155.0 14% 78–75 ✓
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan -7.0 148.0 27% 69–71 ✗
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +8.6 154.1 81% 80–88 ✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +10.9 145.3 86% 68–78 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte -6.4 141.1 31% 68–70 ✗
Stanford @ USC +3.2 152.0 65% 79–93 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +1.0 148.3 54% 95–87 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Florida State +0.9 140.3 53% 74–77 ✓
Missouri State @ Bradley +3.2 137.0 65% 60–86 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego State +12.6 141.4 86% 61–72 ✓
Duquesne @ Loyola Chicago +1.3 141.0 57% 67–72 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond +0.7 137.8 49% 54–65 ✓
George Washington @ VCU +6.3 152.6 76% 84–82 ✗
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State -6.2 146.5 26% 79–72 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +10.2 132.8 88% 53–55 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +2.5 139.5 65% 54–70 ✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina +6.2 152.9 77% 66–70 ✓
Georgia State @ South Alabama +3.4 145.8 69% 90–76 ✗
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -5.1 143.9 24% 81–70 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +5.0 144.6 71% 62–80 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +11.3 140.3 86% 71–74 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -6.1 139.2 28% 82–80 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +3.5 142.1 63% 74–75 ✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois +9.1 133.4 81% 57–68 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock +4.1 145.2 62% 90–88 ✗
App State @ Troy -3.6 148.4 37% 62–66 ✗
Nicholls @ Houston Christian -9.7 149.0 19% 98–94 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +1.8 139.3 70% 86–98 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland -2.8 137.5 30% 88–76 ✓
North Dakota State @ Eastern Washington +12.5 148.5 86% 83–91 ✓
Marshall @ Texas State +0.3 133.8 53% 79–75 ✗
Queens University @ Kennesaw State +6.9 164.6 81% 77–80 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +8.6 134.5 79% 63–70 ✓
Montana State @ South Dakota State +6.5 144.7 75% 61–89 ✓
SE Louisiana @ New Orleans +0.5 137.8 43% 73–68 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling -4.1 138.1 38% 63–69 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston -7.4 139.7 28% 77–81 ✗
Ole Miss @ Tennessee +11.4 141.6 85% 64–90 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma +0.6 145.0 58% 63–71 ✓
Duke @ Notre Dame -11.0 136.7 13% 67–59 ✓
Oregon State @ Washington +10.9 146.4 84% 72–79 ✓
UCF @ Kansas State +2.2 137.3 51% 52–77 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word +0.5 144.4 55% 75–65 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Abilene Christian +8.7 151.6 83% 89–91 ✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U +8.1 134.1 76% 46–48 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -1.6 140.7 52% 68–70 ✗
Texas Southern @ Southern +5.6 141.4 76% 51–58 ✓
Charleston @ Stony Brook -2.2 149.6 45% 93–87 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +2.3 157.7 46% 63–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.