He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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82–35 on winners spread MAE 9.0 117 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Niagara @ Manhattan +4.1 146.9 65% 81–67 ✗
Iona @ Saint Peter's +2.7 124.5 60% 57–69 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena -11.8 133.2 14% 93–69 ✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's +0.4 150.1 52% 69–74 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo +11.6 159.3 85% 64–68 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +9.7 151.5 81% 84–88 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +9.9 155.3 82% 78–83 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron +11.6 137.1 85% 67–83 ✓
Boise State @ San José State -4.4 140.1 35% 78–69 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall -4.4 143.2 35% 75–78 ✗
North Carolina @ Clemson +3.4 160.3 62% 65–55 ✗
Howard @ North Carolina Central +2.3 154.5 58% 54–73 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Louisville -11.8 143.8 14% 83–70 ✓
Rutgers @ Iowa +8.6 146.4 78% 77–86 ✓
DePaul @ Georgetown +9.4 144.6 80% 65–68 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina +0.8 134.9 53% 62–68 ✓
La Salle @ Fordham +6.7 153.5 73% 81–76 ✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +1.7 151.9 56% 82–75 ✗
Kentucky @ Florida +1.5 179.5 55% 87–85 ✗
Holy Cross @ Army +8.9 124.3 79% 57–70 ✓
St. John's @ Villanova +5.5 141.6 69% 81–71 ✗
Colgate @ Navy -1.7 123.4 44% 80–72 ✓
Lafayette @ Boston University +11.5 121.3 85% 59–51 ✗
Georgia @ Missouri +4.2 143.1 65% 75–68 ✗
Saint Francis @ Wagner +7.4 122.6 75% 56–71 ✓
Mercer @ VMI -1.1 138.6 46% 86–64 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -0.4 152.7 49% 80–64 ✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +10.3 168.5 83% 106–98 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy -5.3 151.2 31% 84–61 ✓
Bryant @ UMBC -6.3 173.4 28% 81–67 ✓
TCU @ Kansas +7.2 152.4 74% 81–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +28.1 125.5 99% 55–89 ✓
Providence @ Creighton +12.4 140.2 87% 60–69 ✓
Auburn @ Arkansas -6.1 159.6 29% 83–51 ✓
Virginia @ NC State +1.1 124.4 54% 60–76 ✓
Tulane @ North Texas +8.0 151.0 77% 56–70 ✓
Murray State @ Evansville +10.7 151.3 83% 81–59 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian -1.1 148.6 46% 84–80 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +10.9 152.8 84% 76–85 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson +0.4 134.3 51% 64–67 ✓
Drexel @ William & Mary -7.7 140.5 24% 77–55 ✓
Delaware @ Hofstra +4.6 143.4 66% 71–76 ✓
Campbell @ Hampton +1.4 136.5 55% 80–69 ✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson +9.9 154.3 82% 55–71 ✓
Saint Louis @ George Mason +14.6 145.6 91% 67–79 ✓
American University @ Bucknell +2.3 137.0 58% 71–63 ✗
Le Moyne @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.2 159.9 65% 74–63 ✗
Long Island University @ Stonehill +4.6 143.7 66% 73–68 ✗
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +13.2 134.1 88% 51–80 ✓
Western Michigan @ Buffalo -0.3 143.7 49% 82–77 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ball State +11.8 138.4 86% 71–65 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +6.8 161.1 73% 66–78 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +16.0 147.3 93% 58–89 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +8.4 129.5 78% 58–65 ✓
UAlbany @ NJIT -5.4 154.1 31% 79–73 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -13.6 132.2 11% 73–67 ✓
Nebraska @ Wisconsin +10.6 144.2 83% 72–88 ✓
Miami @ Wake Forest +4.4 158.8 66% 82–86 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma State -7.9 151.5 24% 75–70 ✓
James Madison @ Southern Miss -13.6 161.5 11% 71–81 ✗
UTSA @ Rice +8.3 154.2 77% 89–82 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Longwood +20.5 134.1 97% 56–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +9.3 132.7 80% 58–82 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +8.4 137.6 78% 73–79 ✓
North Dakota @ Northern Arizona +5.1 140.7 68% 73–74 ✓
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe +5.6 138.2 69% 76–68 ✗
Old Dominion @ Arkansas State +9.6 150.7 81% 75–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Stephen F. Austin +7.3 148.6 75% 73–92 ✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt -22.4 159.8 2% 78–75 ✓
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan -8.2 151.2 23% 69–71 ✗
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +11.0 159.6 84% 80–88 ✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +12.4 143.7 87% 68–78 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte -7.5 140.5 25% 68–70 ✗
Stanford @ USC +4.6 155.8 66% 79–93 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +0.4 147.9 51% 95–87 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Florida State -0.1 142.8 50% 74–77 ✗
Missouri State @ Bradley +4.2 138.8 65% 60–86 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego State +13.7 144.7 89% 61–72 ✓
Duquesne @ Loyola Chicago +1.2 141.0 54% 67–72 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond +1.2 137.4 54% 54–65 ✓
George Washington @ VCU +10.4 153.4 83% 84–82 ✗
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State -5.0 149.4 33% 79–72 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +15.2 130.9 92% 53–55 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +4.6 138.7 66% 54–70 ✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina +9.3 160.1 80% 66–70 ✓
Georgia State @ South Alabama +4.5 149.4 66% 90–76 ✗
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -3.7 142.8 37% 81–70 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +6.0 146.7 71% 62–80 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +12.7 137.5 88% 71–74 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -5.9 140.7 30% 82–80 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +5.2 147.6 68% 74–75 ✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois +11.5 134.6 85% 57–68 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock +6.0 152.0 71% 90–88 ✗
App State @ Troy -3.8 151.0 37% 62–66 ✗
Nicholls @ Houston Christian -6.2 149.1 29% 98–94 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +5.6 137.1 70% 86–98 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland -2.4 138.1 41% 88–76 ✓
North Dakota State @ Eastern Washington +12.2 154.6 87% 83–91 ✓
Marshall @ Texas State +3.0 132.3 61% 79–75 ✗
Queens University @ Kennesaw State +9.5 177.4 81% 77–80 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +11.4 135.1 85% 63–70 ✓
Montana State @ South Dakota State +8.2 142.5 77% 61–89 ✓
SE Louisiana @ New Orleans +3.3 139.9 62% 73–68 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling -3.7 135.1 37% 63–69 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston -7.2 140.4 26% 77–81 ✗
Ole Miss @ Tennessee +14.8 138.4 91% 64–90 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma -3.5 146.1 38% 63–71 ✗
Duke @ Notre Dame -12.3 135.0 13% 67–59 ✓
Oregon State @ Washington +16.3 154.1 93% 72–79 ✓
UCF @ Kansas State +1.0 143.4 54% 52–77 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word +2.6 150.0 59% 75–65 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Abilene Christian +12.5 154.9 87% 89–91 ✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U +10.0 135.5 82% 46–48 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -2.7 145.2 40% 68–70 ✗
Texas Southern @ Southern +10.5 141.4 83% 51–58 ✓
Charleston @ Stony Brook -2.6 150.8 41% 93–87 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +6.5 182.9 72% 63–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.