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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 10.0 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Temple @ South Florida	+8.6	147.4	78%	68–76	✓
Towson @ Monmouth	+3.6	131.4	63%	43–51	✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern	+8.3	152.3	78%	62–53	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel	+4.2	138.0	65%	63–78	✓
Hampton @ Delaware	+20.1	152.8	97%	53–80	✓
Elon @ William & Mary	+2.9	164.4	61%	70–77	✓
Charleston @ Hofstra	+7.8	151.0	76%	73–61	✗
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T	+0.2	143.5	51%	62–76	✓
Penn State @ Michigan State	+14.9	142.1	91%	61–92	✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast	+7.4	142.7	75%	70–80	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+13.9	149.1	90%	56–60	✓
Wagner @ Long Island University	-0.7	128.8	47%	67–69	✗
Central Connecticut @ Stonehill	-5.0	140.4	33%	74–59	✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky	-0.8	144.4	47%	76–79	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris	+14.6	144.7	91%	48–92	✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland	+14.0	156.3	90%	95–100	✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy	-6.4	129.5	28%	69–51	✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State	+3.1	166.0	61%	70–82	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State	+16.3	137.2	93%	57–82	✓
Old Dominion @ Troy	+7.3	151.5	75%	73–86	✓
North Florida @ Stetson	+11.5	151.7	85%	74–75	✓
Lipscomb @ Eastern Kentucky	-5.2	149.8	32%	72–80	✗
Memphis @ Tulsa	-6.1	149.2	29%	78–75	✓
James Madison @ Louisiana	-4.1	163.5	36%	68–61	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock	+4.5	154.1	66%	80–88	✓
Georgia State @ Southern Miss	-0.4	148.1	48%	73–79	✗
Coastal Carolina @ Texas State	+12.4	137.2	87%	71–63	✗
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State	+13.8	146.6	90%	83–109	✓
App State @ South Alabama	-4.4	140.7	34%	91–84	✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State	+6.8	139.9	73%	76–78	✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley	+2.8	129.9	60%	58–65	✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana	-0.5	141.8	48%	67–69	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois	+14.7	142.2	91%	61–68	✓
Grand Canyon @ Southern Utah	-6.0	158.0	29%	96–75	✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga	+16.9	145.3	94%	60–86	✓
Oregon @ Washington	+8.0	158.3	77%	76–74	✗
North Texas @ Wichita State	+0.2	132.5	51%	74–62	✗
Minnesota @ Michigan	+5.3	158.0	69%	73–71	✗
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin	+12.7	156.8	88%	79–72	✗
UTEP @ New Mexico State	+1.1	138.2	54%	53–63	✓
Colorado @ Arizona	+13.9	167.0	90%	50–97	✓
San Francisco @ Pacific	-24.2	132.0	1%	92–88	✓
Utah Tech @ Seattle U	+15.0	148.0	91%	53–70	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly	-6.0	147.5	29%	89–82	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield	-3.2	132.6	39%	78–67	✓
UC Davis @ UC Riverside	+2.5	134.3	59%	83–63	✗
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara	+2.1	144.5	58%	79–72	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine	+17.6	133.2	95%	67–75	✓
Oregon State @ Washington State	+15.4	139.5	92%	58–65	✓
Utah @ Arizona State	-9.6	145.7	19%	70–82	✗
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount	+1.5	145.4	55%	68–57	✗
Saint Mary's @ San Diego	-8.1	130.5	23%	81–70	✓
UConn @ Butler	-2.6	152.2	41%	88–81	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.