This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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80–39 on winners spread MAE 8.4 119 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Harvard @ Princeton +9.1 146.2 80% 67–74 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern +4.3 136.5 65% 75–81 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia State +3.8 141.9 64% 58–65 ✓
Saint Louis @ Richmond -0.6 146.0 48% 66–68 ✗
Niagara @ Rider -0.6 130.4 48% 68–70 ✗
Manhattan @ Marist +7.7 145.0 76% 56–74 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Monmouth +5.0 128.3 68% 70–65 ✗
Canisius @ Iona +16.9 145.2 94% 65–72 ✓
Northwestern @ Penn State +1.3 129.3 55% 60–67 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Little Rock -9.7 140.6 19% 68–55 ✓
UT Arlington @ South Alabama +9.0 134.4 79% 52–62 ✓
App State @ Arkansas State +1.4 129.3 55% 60–62 ✓
Iowa @ Nebraska -15.0 166.3 9% 88–78 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +0.3 130.2 51% 66–61 ✗
San José State @ San Diego State +20.6 122.6 97% 52–77 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan State -4.1 150.1 35% 65–68 ✗
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +5.1 130.3 68% 62–66 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +3.1 132.3 61% 62–66 ✓
Elon @ Northeastern +3.4 130.6 62% 67–54 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Toledo +16.2 154.9 93% 73–88 ✓
Florida @ Georgia -8.5 144.6 22% 84–72 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island +12.0 127.9 86% 54–70 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +12.0 136.0 86% 56–64 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Central Connecticut -4.3 124.0 35% 65–46 ✓
Maine @ UMBC +14.7 141.3 91% 79–93 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +0.8 137.5 53% 74–69 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +9.3 140.1 80% 93–100 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +0.7 133.0 53% 69–76 ✓
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky -0.0 150.8 50% 58–72 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy +3.0 140.5 61% 81–78 ✗
Furman @ The Citadel -8.6 157.0 22% 94–59 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State +5.3 133.8 68% 69–74 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas -3.6 150.4 37% 73–75 ✗
Texas @ West Virginia -4.8 125.3 33% 82–81 ✓
Boston University @ Bucknell -8.0 148.7 23% 78–89 ✗
Army @ Holy Cross -4.1 139.8 35% 66–58 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +2.9 141.1 60% 78–58 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ American University -5.2 128.6 32% 55–65 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +4.7 127.2 67% 69–74 ✓
Merrimack @ St. Francis Brooklyn +3.0 123.1 61% 72–52 ✗
Saint Francis @ Sacred Heart +2.8 148.6 60% 68–80 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +14.4 155.6 90% 77–84 ✓
Hampton @ High Point +9.0 133.3 79% 77–88 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State -5.1 157.2 32% 84–74 ✓
Yale @ Cornell -0.5 154.1 48% 65–71 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth -0.1 137.6 50% 70–84 ✗
NJIT @ Hartford +6.3 137.6 72% 62–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb +7.6 164.7 75% 66–81 ✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville State +13.0 131.8 88% 52–69 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State +0.5 128.1 52% 74–73 ✗
Dayton @ La Salle -11.5 131.5 15% 60–62 ✗
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -9.3 144.4 20% 79–53 ✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra +19.7 147.8 96% 67–83 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo +16.2 145.1 93% 60–70 ✓
Fordham @ Davidson +12.1 135.4 87% 45–66 ✓
New Mexico State @ Chicago State -16.9 139.5 6% 59–61 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Miami -0.8 139.8 47% 71–70 ✓
Clemson @ Boston College -2.4 136.7 41% 70–60 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +3.9 149.0 64% 57–65 ✓
Denver @ Western Illinois +7.8 152.0 76% 83–77 ✗
Seton Hall @ Xavier +3.4 142.3 62% 82–66 ✗
Florida A&M @ Grambling +4.2 133.8 65% 79–73 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State +6.1 155.3 71% 64–75 ✓
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss +0.1 134.5 50% 76–66 ✗
Auburn @ Tennessee +3.4 142.8 62% 62–67 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon State -17.3 144.2 6% 94–55 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +6.9 149.1 73% 67–77 ✓
Tulsa @ East Carolina +1.4 141.7 55% 59–64 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego -4.2 140.7 35% 76–81 ✗
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +4.2 138.8 65% 50–70 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas +7.4 125.2 75% 49–56 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte -0.8 142.9 47% 74–69 ✓
Weber State @ Northern Arizona -8.0 145.4 23% 73–49 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State -4.8 158.5 33% 77–87 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +8.4 137.8 78% 54–63 ✓
Wagner @ Bryant -2.9 154.7 40% 70–78 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -5.3 138.2 31% 70–72 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop +19.4 148.4 96% 86–92 ✓
Florida State @ Virginia +5.0 123.4 67% 64–63 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +15.1 135.2 91% 61–62 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +6.2 126.8 71% 60–62 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +4.6 155.5 66% 66–86 ✓
Samford @ Chattanooga +11.5 145.3 85% 57–70 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware +5.8 139.6 70% 69–62 ✗
Charleston @ Drexel +3.7 154.9 63% 79–80 ✓
Towson @ James Madison -6.7 137.5 27% 95–59 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +8.6 139.9 78% 65–69 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville -7.8 133.2 24% 70–77 ✗
Austin Peay @ Eastern Illinois -8.1 119.8 23% 64–52 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State -6.4 141.3 28% 76–69 ✓
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +6.5 130.3 72% 96–98 ✓
VCU @ Massachusetts -6.9 143.1 27% 77–62 ✓
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis -5.8 112.7 30% 67–41 ✓
Murray State @ Southeast Missouri State -16.3 152.9 7% 70–68 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M +0.3 134.3 51% 65–80 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana -2.5 157.5 41% 81–83 ✗
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +9.6 144.1 81% 69–67 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +4.2 142.5 65% 71–73 ✓
San Francisco @ San Diego -12.3 134.3 13% 78–62 ✓
Portland @ Santa Clara +12.2 154.0 87% 89–102 ✓
Radford @ North Carolina A&T +3.3 130.9 62% 62–53 ✗
Longwood @ Campbell -0.4 132.1 48% 60–55 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +10.6 135.3 83% 56–90 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -16.3 132.2 7% 88–79 ✓
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +10.6 157.6 83% 78–67 ✗
Duke @ Syracuse -7.5 155.9 25% 97–72 ✓
Texas Tech @ TCU -5.6 128.7 31% 66–69 ✗
Wisconsin @ Rutgers -1.9 130.7 43% 66–61 ✓
South Carolina @ Alabama +11.0 152.9 84% 71–90 ✓
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +11.7 143.3 86% 59–63 ✓
Washington State @ Washington -6.3 135.8 28% 70–78 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +16.1 142.5 93% 74–81 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Northern Iowa -4.4 139.8 35% 96–102 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Joseph's -3.8 141.8 37% 54–52 ✓
Tennessee State @ Belmont +17.2 145.6 94% 67–87 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +15.0 133.9 91% 87–84 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +5.4 153.6 69% 79–93 ✓
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M +1.4 147.4 55% 72–69 ✗
UAlbany @ Stony Brook +3.1 138.1 61% 50–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.