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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–23 on winners spread MAE 10.0 65 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+10.2	149.3	82%	83–69	✗
Temple @ Memphis	+10.1	139.5	82%	64–78	✓
Marshall @ Middle Tennessee	+12.5	154.2	87%	65–74	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Old Dominion	-2.1	133.2	43%	51–70	✗
Florida International @ Charlotte	+5.7	141.8	70%	55–64	✓
Bryant @ St. Francis Brooklyn	-1.8	151.2	44%	86–69	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Sacred Heart	-2.2	136.6	42%	65–77	✗
Merrimack @ Long Island University	+7.6	133.6	76%	74–85	✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut	+0.6	135.1	52%	79–63	✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop	+9.5	153.2	81%	59–89	✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State	+5.3	149.9	68%	71–84	✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky	+10.0	139.1	82%	64–78	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland	+8.2	142.7	77%	81–70	✗
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy	-0.3	146.8	49%	67–74	✗
Omaha @ Western Illinois	+15.6	159.0	92%	76–88	✓
Elon @ Hofstra	+14.5	147.6	91%	81–55	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel	+6.8	141.9	73%	69–63	✗
Charleston @ Delaware	+4.4	150.4	65%	99–96	✗
Siena @ Quinnipiac	+3.6	142.7	63%	78–71	✗
Maryland @ Indiana	+6.9	135.4	73%	64–74	✓
Sam Houston @ Stephen F. Austin	+5.4	130.7	69%	67–69	✓
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois	-10.4	145.2	17%	79–68	✓
DePaul @ Georgetown	-2.9	151.0	40%	68–65	✓
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State	+5.3	157.7	68%	69–76	✓
UAB @ UTSA	-19.1	146.6	4%	68–56	✓
Southern Miss @ North Texas	+23.2	117.7	98%	61–85	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Rice	-4.9	154.6	33%	83–79	✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona	+4.8	129.8	67%	70–66	✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado	+3.8	162.7	64%	85–76	✗
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian	+4.1	138.6	65%	68–82	✓
Seattle U @ Utah Valley	+3.4	138.5	62%	52–67	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tarleton State	+8.8	142.6	79%	62–75	✓
Lamar @ Abilene Christian	+18.0	142.3	95%	42–77	✓
Milwaukee @ IU Indianapolis	-7.6	116.2	24%	66–54	✓
Green Bay @ UIC	+8.4	137.0	78%	77–81	✓
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts	-4.0	167.9	36%	106–102	✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City	+2.7	139.7	60%	63–72	✓
Denver @ St. Thomas	+2.6	147.2	59%	91–80	✗
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois	-16.2	119.6	7%	82–46	✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State	-6.5	157.2	28%	80–62	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese	+0.1	148.5	50%	65–53	✗
Gonzaga @ San Francisco	-8.7	154.9	22%	89–73	✓
Ohio State @ Illinois	+4.8	144.7	67%	86–83	✗
Belmont @ Murray State	+5.3	144.8	68%	43–76	✓
Arizona State @ Colorado	+6.2	131.0	71%	82–65	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis	-1.8	137.0	43%	76–69	✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech	+6.0	144.8	71%	92–56	✗
Austin Peay @ SIU Edwardsville	+2.8	132.4	60%	68–64	✗
Montana @ Southern Utah	+7.3	143.3	75%	74–82	✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana	-0.1	159.2	50%	79–84	✗
California Baptist @ Utah Tech	-1.1	146.4	46%	71–61	✓
UCLA @ Oregon	-6.0	143.8	29%	63–68	✗
Saint Mary's @ San Diego	-12.0	123.3	14%	60–46	✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside	+11.5	126.3	85%	57–79	✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State	+9.3	147.5	80%	87–103	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton	-0.7	125.3	48%	64–66	✗
Weber State @ Portland State	-4.1	149.5	35%	75–81	✗
Idaho @ Sacramento State	+0.4	144.9	52%	51–83	✓
Loyola Marymount @ BYU	+14.1	144.2	90%	59–79	✓
Portland @ Pacific	-2.6	137.9	41%	75–69	✓
Santa Clara @ Pepperdine	-12.1	156.9	14%	89–73	✓
Arizona @ Utah	-13.9	151.6	10%	97–77	✓
USC @ Oregon State	-12.1	140.4	14%	94–91	✓
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i	+12.5	127.7	87%	54–63	✓
Akron @ Ohio	+6.2	128.0	71%	91–83	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.