Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +16 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -9.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -6.1 (-9.9) | 156.5 (+5.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -5.4 (-10.6) | 155.4 (+6.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -4.7 (-11.3) | 153.8 (+8.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -6.0 (-10.0) | 158.9 (+3.1) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 13-1 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 87.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#22) | 24.8 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#40) | 3.70 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#26) | 4.89 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#35) | 0.626 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 52.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 59.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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