Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +33 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -4.5 (+28.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -5.2 (+27.8) | 140.6 (-21.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -6.7 (+26.3) | 142.6 (-23.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -6.5 (+26.5) | 143.2 (-24.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -6.5 (+26.5) | 143.9 (-24.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 MUR |
| Feb 1, 2026 | BEL 103 – 86 MUR |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BEL 70 – 60 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BEL 95 – 77 MUR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BEL 83 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-3 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-1 |
| Away | 11-1 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#36) | 9.4 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#15) | 1.95 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#18) | 2.08 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#19) | 0.600 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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