Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +36 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -6.1 (-42.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -3.8 (-39.8) | 142.1 (+5.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -4.9 (-40.9) | 143.7 (+4.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -4.5 (-40.5) | 144.0 (+4.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -4.1 (-40.1) | 143.6 (+4.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#249) | -7.8 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#305) | -1.77 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#296) | -2.13 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#304) | 0.407 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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