Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -0.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -0.6 (+2.6) | 128.1 (+1.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -0.4 (+2.4) | 131.1 (-1.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -0.5 (+2.5) | 131.9 (-1.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.0 (+2.0) | 130.4 (-0.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCI 86 – 65 CSUF |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UCI 86 – 64 CSUF |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCI 76 – 51 CSUF |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCI 82 – 62 CSUF |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCI 81 – 71 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 61.4 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#151) | 4.3 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#138) | 0.79 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#145) | 0.80 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#123) | 0.545 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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