I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
52–11 on winners spread MAE 8.0 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Virginia -6.5 127.5 28% 65–61 ✓
Xavier @ Providence +0.6 138.2 52% 92–99 ✓
TCU @ Texas +8.6 121.0 78% 66–75 ✓
James Madison @ Towson +11.7 136.4 86% 65–84 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +5.9 126.7 71% 66–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia State +9.2 141.8 80% 70–82 ✓
Lafayette @ Boston University +9.2 138.7 80% 60–76 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -13.6 139.2 11% 78–71 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +6.6 126.4 73% 60–64 ✓
American University @ Lehigh +5.8 137.1 70% 61–78 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +7.7 119.6 76% 50–52 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +11.1 132.1 84% 66–71 ✓
High Point @ North Carolina A&T +2.1 138.5 57% 78–58 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb +6.1 132.4 71% 59–60 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +10.8 134.1 84% 48–68 ✓
Campbell @ Hampton -5.7 125.4 30% 66–68 ✗
Boston College @ NC State +4.3 142.9 65% 69–61 ✗
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +3.4 149.1 62% 69–79 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson -1.5 147.8 45% 69–80 ✗
Vermont @ Binghamton -12.3 137.1 13% 66–49 ✓
Stony Brook @ UMass Lowell +3.1 146.0 61% 50–67 ✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT -1.5 126.0 45% 83–55 ✓
UMBC @ Hartford -0.2 149.1 49% 92–85 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine -6.8 125.5 27% 72–68 ✓
Central Arkansas @ North Alabama +6.4 145.3 72% 81–72 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Liberty +9.8 148.2 81% 82–72 ✗
Stetson @ Kennesaw State +8.2 139.6 77% 71–75 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +9.9 152.0 82% 68–81 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +6.7 123.5 73% 39–71 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +6.9 147.7 73% 73–76 ✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State +5.8 126.6 70% 81–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ Troy +5.8 135.1 70% 53–59 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia Southern -0.3 134.3 49% 82–69 ✓
Drake @ Valparaiso -6.0 142.0 29% 71–65 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State -5.5 147.2 31% 88–82 ✓
La Salle @ Fordham +7.0 135.6 74% 54–60 ✓
Massachusetts @ Dayton +13.7 144.2 89% 61–82 ✓
Davidson @ Duquesne -11.3 139.3 15% 74–50 ✓
Wofford @ VMI -0.3 148.2 49% 83–72 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Greensboro +9.9 132.3 82% 64–73 ✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State -5.2 137.4 32% 83–77 ✓
The Citadel @ Mercer +5.7 151.9 70% 71–67 ✗
Rutgers @ Michigan +6.4 132.1 72% 62–71 ✓
App State @ Little Rock -8.3 132.3 22% 78–66 ✓
Houston @ Tulane -11.4 139.3 15% 81–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +5.3 134.7 68% 69–90 ✓
Tulsa @ SMU +11.5 142.5 85% 61–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Chicago State -14.9 131.3 9% 85–64 ✓
Texas State @ South Alabama +4.2 133.3 65% 55–52 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State +1.0 135.7 54% 74–69 ✗
Bradley @ Missouri State +4.9 139.1 67% 67–83 ✓
Evansville @ Loyola Chicago +22.4 125.6 98% 31–82 ✓
Furman @ Samford -6.6 152.9 28% 75–83 ✗
Ole Miss @ Auburn +15.8 141.7 92% 64–77 ✓
Butler @ Seton Hall +12.6 130.5 87% 60–66 ✓
LSU @ Kentucky +7.1 139.9 74% 66–71 ✓
Wisconsin @ Minnesota -4.0 133.5 36% 68–67 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +1.4 137.8 55% 61–75 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech -8.0 131.6 23% 62–58 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +3.0 146.7 61% 55–61 ✓
Washington @ Washington State +12.2 134.9 87% 70–78 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson -15.7 144.0 8% 86–88 ✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern +8.8 135.2 79% 28–62 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.