You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–3 on winners spread MAE 7.5 29 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tennessee @ Missouri -14.2 131.7 10% 80–61 ✓
Arkansas @ Florida -0.3 138.8 49% 82–74 ✓
Michigan State @ Iowa +5.9 155.4 70% 60–86 ✓
Charleston @ Northeastern -2.7 146.7 40% 83–72 ✓
Siena @ Monmouth +9.9 132.3 82% 59–71 ✓
Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure +5.9 131.3 70% 55–73 ✓
Richmond @ George Washington -6.4 141.0 28% 84–71 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +3.7 139.8 63% 72–74 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +9.9 140.7 82% 82–93 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron +8.5 149.2 78% 68–82 ✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH) -6.6 157.9 28% 86–84 ✓
Toledo @ Western Michigan -15.8 146.4 8% 92–50 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio +18.5 140.3 95% 50–76 ✓
Georgia @ Texas A&M +12.2 146.0 87% 77–91 ✓
Villanova @ UConn -0.6 135.1 48% 69–71 ✗
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech +9.1 131.7 80% 42–66 ✓
Miami @ Pittsburgh -4.9 136.6 33% 85–64 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis +12.0 146.2 86% 61–72 ✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern +13.4 153.6 89% 65–77 ✓
Kansas State @ Kansas +12.5 144.9 87% 83–102 ✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt -3.2 150.4 39% 74–72 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -9.0 111.4 21% 65–40 ✓
San Diego State @ Boise State +2.4 115.2 58% 57–58 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly -1.4 126.0 45% 61–60 ✓
New Mexico @ Utah State +12.0 156.8 86% 56–81 ✓
UNLV @ Nevada -1.1 146.3 46% 62–54 ✓
Bucknell @ Army +8.0 152.7 77% 60–73 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +4.2 148.8 65% 81–78 ✗
Mississippi State @ South Carolina -2.6 138.0 41% 56–66 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.