Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -2.0 Push |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -0.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.1 (-0.1) | 137.3 (+2.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.2 (-0.2) | 139.5 (+0.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.6 (+0.4) | 139.7 (+0.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -1.3 (+0.7) | 139.6 (+0.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#16) | 17.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#18) | 3.25 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#16) | 3.87 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#33) | 0.641 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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