Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +8 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -1.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -0.5 (-7.5) | 144.0 (-28.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -0.2 (-8.2) | 145.6 (-29.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -0.6 (-8.6) | 145.8 (-29.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -0.4 (-7.6) | 146.1 (-30.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNLV 85 – 83 NEV |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 55 NEV |
| Feb 2, 2025 | NEV 71 – 65 UNLV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NEV 75 – 65 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#129) | 6.3 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#114) | 1.22 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#108) | 1.65 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#109) | 0.549 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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