Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 117.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +25 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -9.4 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -12.0 (-13.0) | 123.3 (-18.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -7.4 (-17.6) | 123.8 (-18.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -8.8 (-16.2) | 126.4 (-21.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -9.7 (-15.3) | 124.9 (-19.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 59.6 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#245) | 7.9 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#188) | 1.11 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#204) | 1.55 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#235) | 0.536 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 26.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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