Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | M-OH +190 BUF -220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +2 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -6.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -5.7 (+3.7) | 157.9 (+12.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.9 (+3.9) | 158.7 (+11.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -5.7 (+3.7) | 159.2 (+10.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -5.5 (+3.5) | 158.1 (+11.9) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | M-OH 73 – 71 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | M-OH 105 – 102 BUF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | M-OH 84 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | M-OH 93 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | M-OH 86 – 65 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-6 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#247) | 4.7 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#248) | 0.55 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#253) | 0.77 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#283) | 0.547 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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