Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -3.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.9 (+0.9) | 155.0 (-9.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.2 (-0.8) | 150.2 (-4.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -1.3 (-0.7) | 152.2 (-6.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -1.7 (-0.3) | 152.1 (-6.1) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAN 96 – 90 ALA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ALA 103 – 87 VAN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ALA 78 – 75 VAN |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ALA 101 – 44 VAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ALA 78 – 66 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#70) | 13.8 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#78) | 2.36 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#88) | 2.99 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#75) | 0.640 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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